ダニエル・ヤーギン氏の経済教室の寄稿原文

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2012/7/12 3:30
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ダニエル・ヤーギン氏(ケンブリッジ・エナジー・リサーチ・アソシエーツ会長)の寄稿原文は以下の通り

(注)寄稿は編集しており、邦文は逐語訳ではありません。

How Will World Energy Change?

By Daniel Yergin(chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates )

What will be the future mix of the energy on which the world economy depends? How different will it be from today's balance?

A few years ago, the answer to these fundamental questions appeared clear. But the uncertainty is much greater today. Yet, at the same time, these questions have become even more critical - especially for Japan, as it struggles to define a new energy policy after the Fukushima tragedy. It also takes on sharper significance as the tough new sanctions on Iranian oil go into effect.

One thing is for sure: a growing world economy will require more energy. Despite the current economic downturn, the world economy could double in size in the next 20 to 25 years. One of the key conclusions in The Quest is that such an increase would require the world's supply of energy to grow by about 35 percent.

But the actual balance among the different sources will have great economic and technical significance - and political impact - for countries around the world.

The Fukushima disaster has set off a difficult and controversial debate in Japan about nuclear energy and the fundamental principles of energy policy. But the effect is being felt all across the globe. Prior to Fukushima, what was called a "nuclear renaissance" was unfolding around the world, as many countries were preparing to make bigger commitments to atomic energy.

But, after Fukushima, the picture has changed dramatically. It is now a "nuclear patchwork", with different policies among different countries. The most immediate reaction was Germany. It was depending on nuclear power for a quarter of its electricity But it is now intends to phase out nuclear energy by 2022. Yet its neighbor France continues to depend upon nuclear power for more than 75 percent of its electricity - and will export nuclear electricity to Germany! The United States is supporting the building of four new reactors, and China is aiming to vastly increase its nuclear fleet.

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